Earlier this week we posted a number of pieces from Missourinet's Brent Martin as he attended the Current Strategy Forum in Rhode Island. The gathering has now concluded and Brent has filed one final piece.
- Steve
There is an irony to this final post about the Current Strategy Forum which was held at Newport, Rhode Island this week. I have returned to my home in Jefferson City, pondering all that was said and attempting to summarize the lessons learned. One of the struggles I faced during my stay was relating a forum sponsored by the Naval War College to an audience in Missouri, which is far from a Navy state. As I write, West-Central Missouri Congressman Ike Skelton addresses the 520 graduates of the Naval War College during a ceremony held on Dewey Field at Naval Station Newport.
I was invited to stay and cover the Congressman’s address, but having spent enough of Learfield’s money (and my wife Tami and daughter Mackenzie having spent enough of our money), I had to decline and return home, missing an obvious Missouri-tie to the week’s events.
The information provided the Public Affairs Officers who so graciously helped me during the week indicates the scope of the CSF. According to a press release by the Navy, "The Naval War College’s missions today are developing strategic and operations leaders, helping the Chief of Naval Operations define the future Navy, strengthening maritime security cooperation and supporting combat readiness." The War College offers a 10-month postgraduate course not only to Navy officers, but officers in all branches of the military as well as to civilian federal agencies and international naval officers. The graduating class this year includes 298 members of the Navy, Marines, Air Force, Army and Coast Guard as well as civilian government employees. It also includes 115 international students from 65 countries. Many of the questions asked of speakers during the CSF came from officers in foreign militaries studying at the War College.
Naval War College President, Rear Admiral James "Phil" Wisecup, wrapped up the two-day event by telling attendees that as he considers what was discussed during the 48 hours of the CSF, he’s processing the information shared, information both broad in its range of topics and deep in its quality of analysis. The CSF attempts to accurately assess the status of the United States in the world today and consider what challenges the nation, especially its military, might face in the future.
It began with an incredible overview of the confidence-shaking world financial crisis which brought the nation horribly close to another Great Depression. The talk by Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff reminded everyone that the country’s overall strength and security is tied closely to its economic viability. As difficult as this current recession has been, it is incredibly similar to other economic crises in the past, according to Rogoff, who said we shouldn’t be lulled into believing the economy is different this time. He said the country ignored numerous warnings of a pending recession, stating, "We had all of the red lights blinking." Rogoff said he believes the worst is behind us, with stocks typically taking three years to recover. He added that he worries about the government’s "stunning rise in debt" that he believes will spark inflation.
One of the themes which threaded through the CSF was accurately assessing America’s status in the world. All who broached it stated it was a difficult topic. America stood astride of the world after the Second World War and became the counterweight to the Soviet Union in a Cold War that posed grave threats to world peace. The Soviet Union collapsed in 1989, leaving America as the lone Super Power. It seemed a new day had dawned and it had. Only it wasn’t the day we had expected. Terrorism rose throughout the world, but shook us awake to its deadly nature on September 11th of 2001. Now America faces multiple threats from rogue governments in North Korea and Iran, but also from terrorist networks and cells just as lethal, but more nimble than past opponents.
Still, making an accurate assessment of the current state of affairs and accurately predicting the future is nearly impossible. That reminder came from Eliot Cohen of Johns Hopkins University who stated we really cannot identify trends and problems that the nation might face in the future.
"I don’t think humanity walks into the future, we back into it," Eliot told the CSF. To illustrate the point, Cohen played what he called "Decade Leap Frog".
He called June of 1909, a century ago, the high summer of European civilization. Europe dominated the world and was at peace. In 1919, Europe is shattered, great Empires have vanished, communism has taken over Russia. Eliot stated no one could have predicted that a decade earlier. He noted that in June of 1929, the Stock Market had not yet crashed, reconciliation between Great Britain, France and Germany had taken place and Russia had been marginalized. In 1939, the Great Depression had severely weakened governments and a new form of totalitarianism had arisen under the leadership of Adolph Hitler in Germany, threatening everyone. The game continues with the incredible promise of one decade fading into chaos and conflict in the next.
AUDIO: Cohen describes "Decade Leap Frog" (20 min MP3)
State Department Director of Policy Planning, Anne-Marie Slaughter, seized upon the theme of the Current Strategy Forum 2009, "Seizing Strategic Opportunities: Challenging the Paradigm" in her address. Slaughter said it is an incredible time to be considering such things. She identified three broad areas where she sees the paradigms of how we analyze the world shifting. The biggest shift, in Slaughter’s view, is from a hierarchical world to a horizontal world. Nations can still pose threats, but terrorism poses a deadly threat to which governments find difficulty responding. The second big paradigm shift, according to Slaughter, is from alliances to partnerships. She said formal alliances with their broad agreements and requirements have faded into the background with less-formal partnerships now being formed to address specific issues. The third paradigm shift outlined by Slaughter is the shift from an inter-state world to an inter-people world. She said there remains classic power politics, inter-state conflict, but non-state actors, such as terrorists, now can threaten a nation’s security.
AUDIO: Slaughter addresses CSF (40 min MP3)
One of the most interesting speakers at the CSF wasn’t a member of the Obama Administration, a military officer or an academic. Greg Mortenson, author of Three Cups of Tea and founder of the nonprofit Central Asia Institute, has been sought out by the military for his cross-cultural expertise in Afghanistan and Pakistan. His foundation promotes education, especially for girls, in the remote regions of the two countries.
Mortenson told CSF attendees that ignorance is the real enemy in the volatile region in which the United States military is working to uproot terrorists. He said the Taliban is trying to drive a wedge between the youth of the region and their elders, breaking the bond that would keep the youth from becoming terrorists. He says radical Islamic leaders peel the youth from their families and villages, break those bonds and teach a new ideology. He said that if America wants success in the battle against terrorism, it must think in terms of generations, not decades, presidential cycles or military rotations. Mortenson calls it a very difficult, long, tedious, but beautiful process. He said he is convinced that education has to be one of the top priorities.
Mortenson said that though the majority of terrorists are young boys, the key to disrupting their recruitment is the education of girls. He said the education of girls changes society in that remote region of the world. The reason, according to Mortenson, is that when girls become educated, it reduces infant mortality, reduces the population explosion and improves the quality of health, which improves their overall lives. Also, girls will teach their mothers how to read and write, which breeds a more civil society. Mortenson said the cultural impact has been noticed by the Taliban, which has been targeting schools the last three years, bombing more than 500 schools in Afghanistan and 320 schools in Pakistan. About 80% of the schools destroyed are schools for girls. Mortenson says the Taliban fears the pen more than the sword.
AUDIO: Mortenson speech to CSF (55 min MP3)
Perhaps this might seem to be a lengthy blog. In truth, it only scratches the surface of the discussion that took place at the Current Strategy Forum, a discussion that takes place every year in Newport, Rhode Island as the Naval War College pauses to consider our place in the world and our role in maintaining peace.
Brent Martin